Alexander Razuvaev, a notable Russian economist and member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers, recently made predictions concerning the future of Bitcoin following the onset of a Russian CBDC.
The economist argued that the emergence of digital currencies, such as the digital ruble and other central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), would lead to a significant decrease in their value. Despite this, Razuvaev clarified that cryptocurrencies would not disappear entirely but would become less prominent.
Razuvaev highlighted the current state of the cryptocurrency market as “greatly overheated” due to a surge in demand he views as unsustainable. He forecasted that cryptocurrency prices, including Bitcoin, might rise in the short term. However, he anticipated potential instability post-April, likely alluding to the anticipated bitcoin halving event.
In explaining the volatility of cryptocurrencies, Razuvaev noted, “Crypto is all about demand… Bitcoin cannot be valued in the same way as traditional financial assets, which makes it a risky investment.” He expressed optimism about the future financial landscape, suggesting that the introduction of digital versions of major world currencies could lead to a “better world” for investors.
Further drawing historical parallels, Razuvaev compared the cryptocurrency craze to the Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century, indicating a common pattern of speculative investment leading to loss. Despite this, he differentiated the cryptocurrency market from traditional “financial pyramids,” suggesting it has the resilience to persist in some form.
On the subject of the digital ruble, Razuvaev has previously mentioned that the adoption of CBDCs, including Moscow’s digital ruble, is a growing trend likely to accelerate with technological advancements. He controversially claimed that Moscow might eventually mandate pensioners to receive payments in digital rubles.
Amidst these discussions, Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank of Russia, reported progress in the digital ruble’s pilot testing. The pilot involved comprehensive tests, including consumer-to-consumer transactions and retail payments, with over 25,000 transactions recorded. The pilot’s success hints at the digital ruble’s potential impact on the nation’s economy, with a tentative launch date no earlier than 2025.
While Russian regulators maintain a cautious approach towards cryptocurrencies, they have not completely dismissed the potential for legal investments in the digital asset class. At a recent forum, the Bank of Russia clarified its stance, emphasizing that while cryptocurrencies will not be recognized as legal tender within the country, the possibility of legal investments in cryptocurrencies remains open. This condition is predicated on the investor’s ability to adequately assess and understand the risks associated with such investments.
