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Will History Repeat Itself Or Are We Heading For A Market Meltdown?

Bitcoin stands at the forefront, with its upcoming halving event sparking excitement and uncertainty among investors. As the countdown to Bitcoin’s fourth halving narrows to roughly three days, market dynamics have taken a tumultuous turn, with significant implications for the digital asset’s price trajectory.

Deciphering BTC’s Halving Patterns: Insights Into Pre-Event Price Behaviour

While the Bitcoin market has been on a decline over the past week, A CryptoQuant analyst has recently highlighted a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price dynamics observed before each halving cycle.

This pattern entails a significant price decline, a trend witnessed in previous halving events. For instance, during the second halving, Bitcoin experienced a price drop of 40.36%, plummeting to $465 before eventually surging to an all-time high of $19,600.

Similarly, preceding the third halving, the cryptocurrency saw a decline of 20.35%, reaching a low of $8,078 before reaching a peak of $69,000.

Bitcoin recurring pre-halving plunge. | Source: CryptoQuant

In the current halving cycle, the price has already decreased by 16.65%, mirroring the historical trend identified by CryptoQuant.

Despite the decline, CryptoQuant suggests that this reduction is typical before halving events, indicating that it may not necessarily warrant concern. The CryptoQuant analyst noted:

There’s no need for alarm, as this scenario repeats consistently in each cycle, albeit with varying percentages. The correct approach now is to enter the market gradually at previously identified strategic points. The path to the current cycle’s peak remains open, and we are still at the beginning of this journey.

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects the observations made in the CryptoQuant report. The crypto has witnessed a downward trend over the past week, with a decrease of over 10% in the last seven days and a further decline of 3.1% in the past 24 hours. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $63,098, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on

Market Experts Weigh In: Bitcoin Insights And Projections

Industry experts offer contrasting perspectives on Bitcoin’s future trajectory in light of the impending halving. Kris Marszalek, CEO of, acknowledges the likelihood of short-term selling pressure leading up to the halving, citing the familiar adage of “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” trading behavior.

Nonetheless, Marszalek remains optimistic about the long-term implications of the halving, emphasizing its potential to “bolster” Bitcoin’s price trajectory over an extended period.

Echoing this sentiment, Samson Mow, head of Jan3 BTC adoption-focused company, dismisses the current price downturn as an “overreaction,” foreseeing a bullish resurgence post-halving.

Mow highlights the impending halving as a catalyst for a significant “supply shock” in the Bitcoin market, driven by the absorption of BTC by spot Bitcoin ETFs and recent regulatory approvals for Bitcoin-related financial products in Hong Kong.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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