Bitcoin is holding well above the critical support at $47,000. Trading at $50.067 with 1.6% in the 1-hour chart and sideways movement in the 24-hour chart, BTC seems to be on a path to recovery on the lower timeframes. As many in the crypto space have said, this bull-run will be defined by its quick bounce backs and consolidations periods.
Trader Josh Rager compared BTC’s past price action with the current price performance. For Rager is a normal part of a bull-run for BTC to trend below its 100 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA). During 2017, the cryptocurrency saw at least 3 drops below this metric.
The trader believes investors should be “concerned” if the price breaks below its 200D EMA. In contrast, BTC never trends below this metric while on bullish price action.
During the weekend, the trader expects a bounce if BTC drops to the mid-$40,000. Currently, the 10W EMA is converging with the weekly support level, as Rager explained. This could serve as a good entry point for a long position in both BTC and altcoins, as the trader said:
The bottom could be in, but if Bitcoin bounces and then goes down to lower $40ks. Would love to buy in that area both $BTC and alts. As long as price holds there we could see some major rallies over the next few months as BTC slowly uptrends.
In the meantime, some side movement could be Bitcoin’s new normal for the short term. Lex Moskovski, CIO at Moskovski Capital, believes the recent crash “cooled off” BTC’s major overheating indicators.
As seen below, Moskovski compares 2017 bull run metrics with the current market and determined that Bitcoin is around 44% from potentially reaching a peak on its upside trend. On the contrary, there could be even more upside momentum after this week’s crash. Moskovski said:
Bitcoin has cooled off a bit and according to the major overheating indicators has even more upside now.
What Could Break Bitcoin’s Market Structure?
Economist and trader Alex Krüger provided further arguments for a long-term BTC bullish case. As Krüger said, this cryptocurrency has seen massive adoption with macro-economic conditions that benefit it. Since 2020, the thesis of Bitcoin as a store of value has gained a lot of strength among institutional investors.
Krüger laid out two possible scenarios. In one, “major catalysts” re-heat the market, and BTC’s price pushes into a new discovery period. The economist said:
The first half of this dump was expected, not so the second, which was news-driven. Shit happens. But nothing major has changed aside of a healthy cleansing. When expecting a range good to avoid getting bullish on breakouts, or risk getting head chopped off.
In the second scenario, the U.S. Government and its Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen launch new regulations for crypto and digital assets. Krüger expects any “draconian” rules to negatively impact the market.
