The crypto community is buzzing with optimism about the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. This excitement is reflected in Polymarket, where bettors are assigning an 87% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot XRP ETF by the end of the year. If approved, an XRP ETF could significantly impact institutional adoption and liquidity for the digital asset, mirroring the success of Bitcoin ETFs.
Ripple’s Legal Victory Fuels Optimism
A major factor driving this optimism is Ripple’s recent legal victory against the SEC. The prolonged legal battle, which centered on whether XRP is a security, was finally resolved in favor of Ripple. With this legal hurdle out of the way, the path to an XRP ETF approval seems more straightforward.
Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, expressed confidence on X (formerly Twitter), stating that the approval of an XRP ETF is inevitable. According to Geraci, it is only a “matter of time” before the SEC greenlights an XRP ETF. He anticipates that major asset managers such as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Fidelity will be involved in offering XRP as a regulated investment product.
Polymarket Bets Reflect High Confidence
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, shows that bettors are assigning an 87% probability to the approval of an XRP ETF by the SEC in 2025. This high level of confidence suggests that investors believe the regulatory landscape is shifting in favor of crypto assets, making it more likely that the SEC will approve XRP as the next altcoin to secure an ETF.
An XRP ETF would allow traditional investors to access XRP through regulated financial instruments, which could significantly boost adoption and liquidity. Similar to the positive impact Bitcoin ETFs had on BTC prices, an XRP ETF could legitimize XRP as a mainstream asset and increase its market value.
Institutional Adoption and Market Impact
If the SEC approves an XRP ETF, it could act as a catalyst for institutional adoption. Much like Bitcoin ETFs, which exposed traditional investors to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) without the complexities of crypto storage and security, an XRP ETF would provide a regulated on-ramp for investors. This move would not only increase XRP’s legitimacy but also create additional demand, liquidity, and stability in the market.
Currently, XRP is the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, sitting just $2 billion away from overtaking Tether (USDT-USD) to claim the third position. An approved ETF could propel XRP higher in the rankings and establish it as a dominant force in the digital asset space.
The Controversy Surrounding Polymarket
While Polymarket has been a reliable platform for crypto predictions, it has not been without controversy. Recently, the site faced allegations of a governance attack involving a whale holder of Universal Market Access (UMA) tokens. This controversy stemmed from a $7 million bet placed on whether former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine signed a mineral agreement between March 24 and 25.
Although this incident raised questions about the trustworthiness of certain prediction markets, Polymarket continues to maintain its reputation for forecasting accuracy. Despite the controversy, the high probability assigned to XRP ETF approval reflects growing confidence in the broader crypto market’s trajectory.
SEC’s Shifting Policy and Political Influence
The shift in the SEC’s stance toward crypto assets has further fueled speculation about XRP ETF approval. Under a more crypto-friendly administration, the regulatory environment has become more conducive to the approval of crypto-related financial products. Ripple’s legal victory, combined with a favorable political climate, strengthens the case for an XRP ETF.
Additionally, former President Donald Trump’s recent push for stablecoin legislation and the launch of his own dollar-backed stablecoin under World Liberty Financial adds momentum to the crypto narrative. These developments indicate that traditional financial institutions and policymakers are warming up to the idea of regulated crypto products.
Conclusion: XRP ETF Approval Could Be a Game-Changer
The growing speculation around an XRP ETF highlights the increasing interest in regulated crypto investment vehicles. If approved, an XRP ETF would pave the way for greater institutional involvement, increased liquidity, and price stability for XRP. With Polymarket bettors assigning an 87% chance of approval and Ripple’s legal hurdles cleared, the likelihood of an XRP ETF becoming a reality in 2025 appears stronger than ever.
As the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, the approval of an XRP ETF could mark a significant milestone for the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in a new era of institutional adoption and mainstream acceptance of digital assets.
Featured Image: Freepik
