Summary:
- Su Zhu has admitted via Twitter that his Bitcoin supercycle thesis ‘was regrettably wrong.’
- Mr. Zhu’s Bitcoin supercycle thesis had forecasted that BTC could reach $2.5 million if it took a large portion of Gold’s market share.
The co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, Su Zhu, has admitted via Twitter that his Bitcoin supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong. In the tweet that can be found below, Mr. Zhu went on to express optimism that the crypto industry will still ‘thrive and change the world every day.’
Supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong, but crypto will still thrive and change the world every day
— Zhu Su 🔺 (@zhusu) May 27, 2022
Su Zhu’s Bitcoin Supercycle Thesis Explained
Su Zhu’s Bitcoin supercycle thesis dates back to a February 2021 interview on the UpOnly podcast where he suggested that BTC could hit $2.5 million if it were successful in capturing a significant portion of Gold’s market share. He explained his $2.5 million Bitcoin target as follows:
I mean, I think there’s an argument that gold itself is very undervalued. If it was the dominant store of value cause this thing was at like $1,700 years ago… and let’s say gold should have 5X’d if there wasn’t Bitcoin, then really we’re looking at a $50 trillion market cap.
So then you’re already halfway there to $100 trillion and that will get you to $2.5 million per BTC and I think that that is definitely possible.
Bitcoin Has Dropped by Almost 50% Since His Interview on UpOnly.
At the time of the interview back in February 2021, Bitcoin was trading at about $50,000 and would go on to post a new all-time high of $69k in November of the same year. However, the King of Crypto has since entered a bear market that has seen Bitcoin hit a local low of $26,700 earlier this month due to the crypto market panic caused by UST’s depegging.
This, in turn, translates to an almost 50% drawback of Bitocin since Su Zhu appeared on the UpOnly podcast and explained his Bitcoin supercycle thesis.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $28,400 as the US Federal Reserve starts the process of Quantitative Tightening beginning next week, June 1st. As a result, analysts and crypto traders remain bearish on the short-term future of Bitcoin as it could drop to $22k or even $20k.
