Bitcoin (BTC) may be hovering near record highs, but crypto entrepreneur and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is issuing a word of caution. According to Hayes, the Bitcoin price forecast now includes a possible retracement to $90,000—even as the long-term trend remains bullish.
The warning comes in the wake of the passage of President Donald Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, which combines tax cuts with an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling. While this may sound like a market-friendly move, Hayes argues it could temporarily drain liquidity from financial markets—and drag down Bitcoin with it.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and the Treasury Impact
On Wednesday, July 2, the House passed Trump’s new fiscal bill, which had already cleared the Senate. President Trump is expected to sign it into law on Independence Day, July 4. The bill, which aims to cut taxes and raise the debt ceiling, may sound pro-growth at first glance. But Hayes warns of short-term fallout for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
In his latest blog post titled “Quid Pro Stablecoin,” Hayes said that the U.S. Treasury would likely refill its General Account (TGA) after the bill passes. Doing so would require the Treasury to issue new debt, soaking up liquidity from the financial system—capital that would otherwise flow into risk assets like crypto.
“Proceed with caution,” Hayes wrote. “The bull market might be interrupted for a short period of time.”
Bitcoin Near Highs—But a Dip Could Follow
As of Thursday, Bitcoin was trading at $109,594, according to CoinGecko, just 2% off its all-time high of $111,814 set in May. The coin has gained over 2% in the last seven days, but momentum is slowing.
Despite the recent rally, Hayes believes the Bitcoin price forecast includes a pullback to $90,000 in the near future. However, he maintains a long-term bullish stance, calling any correction a temporary shakeout.
Hayes: Bitcoin Still on Track for $1 Million by 2028
This isn’t the first time Hayes has made bold predictions. In May, he stated that Bitcoin could hit $1 million per coin by 2028. The rationale? A combination of central bank money printing, growing distrust in U.S. Treasury securities, and increasing demand for decentralized stores of value.
According to Hayes, as investors flee U.S. treasuries, they’re likely to pour money into alternative assets like Bitcoin. While the Bitcoin price forecast may include turbulence, the long-term trajectory remains upward—particularly if fiscal and monetary policy continue to devalue fiat currencies.
Stablecoins and Fiscal Control: What the GENIUS Act Means
Hayes also warned that the U.S. government’s interest in stablecoins is less about innovation and more about fiscal manipulation. In the same blog post, he argued that the GENIUS Act, passed by the Senate last month, is designed to limit private issuance of stablecoins.
Instead, the legislation would allow large banks to issue stablecoins—which could then be used to purchase U.S. Treasuries, effectively helping the government finance its growing debt. While it provides regulatory clarity, Hayes argues this shift could centralize control and suppress innovation in the crypto space.
Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?
The short answer: proceed with caution. The Bitcoin price forecast suggests potential for a short-term drop due to macro liquidity shifts, but the long-term picture remains bright.
Traders should prepare for volatility as the Treasury ramps up borrowing and stablecoin regulation evolves. Hayes’ projection of a dip to $90,000 might unsettle some investors—but for long-term believers, it could offer a buying opportunity before the next leg up.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is set to reshape fiscal policy and market liquidity in the months ahead. While Bitcoin remains a top-performing asset, Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price forecast urges patience amid a shifting macro landscape.
In his view, a short-term dip is not a reason to panic—but a reminder that even bull markets come with bumps. For now, crypto investors would be wise to keep one eye on the charts—and the other on Washington.
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