BTC and altcoins flashed a few bullish signals today, but traders say $38,000 is still the level Bitcoin needs to close above before a reversal can begin.
Bitcoin (BTC) and several altcoins have bounced off their immediate support levels after buyers attempted to arrest the current decline. Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone highlighted in a recent Tweet that Bitcoin was trading roughly 20% below its 50-week moving average and such discounted levels have “often resulted in good price support.”
The bearish price action of the past few days does not seem to have deterred the institutional traders from accumulating at lower levels. According to CoinShares’ Feb. 22 “Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly” report, institutional investors pumped about $89 million into Bitcoin funds between Feb. 14 and Feb. 18, taking the total inflows in the current month to $178.3 million.
Crypto traders do not seem to be too scared by the current 50% correction. In a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank, only about 35% of the respondents said they would reduce their trading in an extremely bearish crypto market condition. A majority, more than 70%, said they planned to increase their crypto activity over the next six months.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins sustain the relief rally or will bears pounce and stall the recovery? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin bounced from the first support at $36,250 and the bulls will now attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance zone between $39,600 and the 50-day simple moving average ($40,615).
If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $45,821 where the bears are likely to mount a stiff resistance.
The long wick on today’s candlestick suggests that bears are attempting to flip $39,600 into resistance. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in the negative territory suggest that bears have the upper hand.
A break and close below $36,250 will signal the resumption of the down move. The pair could then decline to $34,000 and later retest the Jan. 24 low at $32,917.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) bounced off the psychological support at $2,500 on Feb. 22. The bulls have pushed the price above the breakdown level of $2,652, indicating strong buying at lower levels.
The buyers will now try to propel the price above the moving averages. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. The bulls will have to push the price above the triangle to signal the start of a new uptrend.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the pair below the support line of the triangle. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the symmetrical triangle has acted as a continuation pattern. The pair could then drop to $2,159 and later to $2,000.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) bounced off the strong support at $350 on Feb. 22 indicating that bulls have not given up and they continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to drive the price above the downtrend line of the descending channel.
If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($416). This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break above it could signal a possible change in trend. The pair could thereafter rise to $445.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, the bears will fancy their chances and make one more attempt to pull the pair below $350. If that happens, the pair could drop to the strong support zone at $330 to $320.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) bounced off $0.66 on Feb. 2 and the bulls pushed the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.72). The buyers will now attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.75.
If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. The bulls will have to push the pair above this line to indicate that bulls are back in the game. The pair could then rally to $0.91.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $0.75, it will suggest that bears have flipped the level into resistance. The bears will then attempt to pull the price below $0.66 and extend the decline to $0.60.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) has bounced off the strong support near $0.80, indicating that buyers are attempting to arrest the decline. The price could now reach the breakdown level at $1.
If buyers push and sustain the price above $1, it will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels. The bulls will then attempt to push the price to the resistance line of the descending channel. A break and close above the channel will signal a possible trend change.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $1, it will suggest that bears have flipped this level into resistance. The sellers will then try to pull the pair below $0.80 and resume the downtrend.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) bounced off the $81 support on Feb. 22, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend this level. The RSI is showing signs of forming a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum could be weakening.
If buyers drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($97), the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. This level could act as a major barrier but if bulls overcome it, the pair could rally to $122.
A break and close above this resistance will complete a double bottom pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective at $163. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the resistance line and plummets below $81. That could open the doors for a further decline to $66.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) broke below the moving averages on Feb. 20 but the bears could not build upon this advantage. Strong buying near $67 has resulted in a rebound and the price has reached the moving averages.
If buyers push and sustain the price above the moving averages, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the downtrend line. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line but bounces off the moving averages, it will indicate that traders are buying on dips. That will improve the prospects of a break above the channel. If that happens, the pair could first rise to $100 and then rally toward $117.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below $67 and resume the downtrend.
Related: Even in a choppy crypto market, this algorithmic indicator helped traders identify the few winners
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($54) on Feb. 22 which was the first indication that the sellers may be losing their grip. Sustained buying has pushed the price to the downtrend line of the descending channel.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, suggesting a minor advantage to buyers. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($62) will indicate a possible trend change. The LUNA/USDT pair could then rally to $70 where it may again face resistance from the bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will signal that bears are attempting to defend the overhead resistance. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bulls are buying the dips. That will increase the possibility of a break above the 50-day SMA. This positive view will be negated if bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the strong support at $0.12 on Feb. 12, suggesting that the bulls have not yet given up and are buying on dips.
The relief rally is likely to face strong resistance at the moving averages but the positive divergence on the RSI favors the buyers. If the bulls push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.14), the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.17.
A break and close above this level will complete a double bottom pattern, which has a target objective at $0.22. Conversely, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will fancy their chances and try to sink the pair below $0.12. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $0.10.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) has bounced off the support at $15.80, indicating that the bulls have not given up and they continue to buy at lower levels. The RSI is showing signs of forming a positive divergence, suggesting that the selling momentum could be weakening.
The DOT/USDT pair could now rise to the downtrend line, which is likely to act as a strong resistance. If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again attempt to pull the pair below $15.80 and resume the downtrend.
Conversely, if bulls drive the price above the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA ($21.14), the pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $23.19. A break and close above this level will complete a double bottom pattern.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
