Cardano’s price breached the $0.61 barrier on Feb. 16, while an unusual trend in derivatives market trends suggests more bullish action could follow.
Cardano (ADA) emerged as one the best-performing mega-cap crypto assets this week, thanks to billions of dollars flowing towards the Layer-1 altcoin sector.
It remains to be seen if ADA bulls capitalize on the prevailing bullish catalysts to reclaim $1 for the first time since the TerraUST crash in May 2022.
Cardano’s open interest has doubled in the last 21 days
Since the recent local bottom on Jan. 25, Cardano’s price has gained 37%, peaking at $0.61 within the daily timeframe on Feb. 16. During this period, Cardano’s ecosystem has effectively added about $5.7 billion to its market capitalization.
Looking beyond the spot markets, recent trends observed among derivatives reveal a rare, bullish alignment.
CoinGlass’ open interest data tracks the nominal value of active futures contracts currently listed from a particular cryptocurrency asset. As of Jan. 25, ADA open interest stood at $217.1 million. In an unusual trend, it has now increased by another $218.7 million, to reach a 4-month peak of $435.8 million at the time of writing on Feb. 16.
A 100.7% surge in open interest indicates that speculative traders have doubled their investments in ADA futures markets over the past 21 trading days.
Delving deeper, it reveals that the rapid growth in investor interest and market participation outpaces the increase in Cardano spot prices.
While ADA’s 37% price appreciation over the same period is noteworthy, it pales compared to the staggering 100.7% rise in open interest.
Strategic investors often perceive such unusual market dynamics as a strong bullish signal for two primary reasons: The substantial increase in open interest suggests heightened market activity and growing investor confidence in ADA’s short-term price prospects, and the significant disparity between price gains and open interest growth may indicate underlying market strength and potential for sustained upward momentum.
Cardano price forecast: Is $1 a viable target?
Based on the market trends, Cardano’s price appears primed for another leg-up closer to $1 in the weeks ahead. However, historical accumulation trends suggest that ADA could face stiff resistance at the $0.67 range.
IntoTheBlock’s global in/out of the money (GIOM) data groups all existing investors by their entry prices. The GIOM shows that 109,300 existing holders had acquired 1.5 billion ADA at an average price of $0.64.
Considering this is the largest cluster of holders that bought ADA above the current prices, a decisive breakout above $0.65 could effectively open the door to a larger upswing toward the $1 mark, as predicted.
The bears could invalidate this lofty prediction if ADA price reverses below $0.50. But in this scenario, the 345,590 address that acquired 5.03 billion ADA at the average price of $0.52 could mount a significant buy-wall.
