From the prospects of BTC hitting $100,000 in 2024 — to search interest for the “Bitcoin halving” — here’s a data-driven look at this rare event.
Bitcoin is lumbering up for its fourth halving — and no two events are the same.
The markets are unrecognizable from where they were even four years ago.
Here are five fascinating facts about the 2024 halving.
1. There isn’t much Bitcoin left
Bitcoin has been structured, so most of its total supply is already in circulation.
After the halving, there will be a mere 1.3 million BTC left for miners to discover — and that’s got to last all the way until 2140.
From now on, only 450 BTC a day will be created, meaning just 657,000 BTC will hit the market between now and 2028.
2. Google searches for “Bitcoin halving” are smashing records
While there were some modest spikes in 2016 and 2020, a record number of internet users are scrambling to learn more about the 2024 halving.
Google Trends data shows Nigeria, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Slovenia top the list of countries most interested in the looming 50% cut to block rewards.
3. BlackRock is feeling *very* bullish
The world’s largest asset management firm recently caused a splash by launching an exchange-traded fund based on Bitcoin’s spot price.
This means that, for the first time, many institutional investors have been able to gain exposure to the halving without owning the digital asset directly.
BlackRock executive Jay Jacobs says the iShares Bitcoin Trust — which now has $18 billion in assets under management — is the fastest-growing ETF of all time… and we’re still early. Last week, he wrote on X:
“A very large share of advisors and institutions are still just starting their educational journey on Bitcoin to ultimately determine whether it makes sense to add to their portfolio. This will be a months or even years-long journey for many.”
Jay Jacobs
In a recent blog post, Jacobs said halvings “are critical to Bitcoin’s value proposition as a transparent cryptoasset with a finite supply.”
He also shared a chart that shows BTC has typically delivered the strongest returns in the calendar year after a halving — popping 5,428% in 2013 and 1,375% in 2017.
However, things were a little different during the third halving in 2020. BTC’s gains of 305% that year far exceeded the 60% growth that followed in 2021.
With BTC hitting a fresh all-time high before the halving for the first time ever, it remains to be seen how long the current bull run will last.
4. Bitcoin Ordinals are popping, too
A relatively recent development in the Bitcoin ecosystem relates to Ordinals, effectively this blockchain’s answer to non-fungible tokens.
They allow rare messages, images, and videos to be inscribed on a single satoshi, which is equivalent to one 100 millionth of a Bitcoin.
Demand for Ordinals has gone through the roof — and that’s despite Binance discontinuing support for these crypto collectibles.
Data from CryptoSlam! shows Ordinals sales have hit $13.8 million in just 24 hours — more than Ethereum and Solana combined.
There’s also particular excitement for the very first sat mined after the halving, especially considering it will be just one of four to ever exist.
Casey Rodarmor, who created the Ordinals protocol, has said it’ll have “epic” rarity.
According to Ordiscan founder Tristan, being chosen as the lucky miner to receive this sat could result in a huge payday that far exceeds any reduction in block rewards. He wrote in a blog post:
“Knowing that Rare sats are selling for $100k a pop, and that the supply of those is 100 times bigger than Epic sats (410 vs 3), we can safely say that the Epic sat will probably be valued at least 10 times higher than a Rare sat.”
Tristan, Ordiscan founder
The total price tag, we hear you ask? A cool $1 million.
5. The short-term outlook is uncertain
It’s all too easy to throw out random Bitcoin price predictions, but in the betting markets, people are putting their money where their mouth is.
And if the odds on Polymarket are to be believed, BTC’s prospects aren’t looking all that promising in the recent months.
The latest stats suggest that bettors believe there’s just a 46% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this year, with sentiment slipping over the past few weeks. Only 11% believe we’ll see $250,000 by December.
With BTC briefly dipping to its lowest price since February as the halving neared, 17% believe the world’s biggest cryptocurrency won’t be above $60,000 on the day itself.
