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The success of a Solana ETF relies heavily on Trump election outcome, analyst says

A Solana ETF approval will likely hinge on changes within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and with Donald Trump victory looming large.

Following the recent approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, VanEck is now seeking approval for its own Solana (SOL) ETF. 

However, the sentiment in the crypto space is that many regulatory challenges loom large for any altcoin ETFs other than ETH or BTC.  VanEck’s analysts have acknowledged that substantial regulatory changes are necessary before the Solana ETF can gain approval. .

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, discussed the hurdles facing the Solana ETF approval.

Regulatory hurdles for Solana 

He noted that current SEC Chair Gary Gensler has set stringent conditions for altcoin ETFs, including the existence of a regulated futures market for Solana, which does not currently exist. 

Sigel expressed disagreement with this requirement, arguing that ETFs for shipping and uranium don’t depend on futures markets for price discovery. He speculated that this requirement might be a deliberate tactic to postpone the approval of crypto ETFs.

“[Gensler] has created that condition since taking power. There are a number of ETFs that trade where the futures market is irrelevant to the price formation,” Sigel said.

Sigel suggests that a shift in the SEC’s stance may hinge on new leadership post-2024 election. He highlights the sentiment of pro-crypto voters on election outcomes, prompting both major parties to take notice.

Donald Trump

“Can confirm,” was Sigel’s simple response to speculation that VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal relies heavily on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency. 

Former President Donald Trump has shifted his stance on cryptocurrency, now expressing more positive views after receiving significant donations from crypto businesses. This change could influence his policies moving forward. 

Additionally, there is speculation that a shift in the SEC’s approach to crypto could occur, even if President Biden is re-elected, as some Democrats have voiced support for pro-crypto policies.

VanEck’s Solana spot ETF proposal is contingent on the outcome of the 2024 election, with the application deadline set for March 2025. The Solana ETF proposal has already spurred significant interest, with Solana’s price surging in volume following the filing.